Red Social Innovation (2020) Other

Foresight, using machine learning to predict refugees displacement

Red Social Innovation

Ref: SRC-003-SSD-001

https://red-social-innovation.com/en/solution/foresight-using-machine-learning-to-predict-refugees-displacement/

Accessed: 3/23/2026

Summary

Detailed technical profile of DRC's Foresight platform (precursor to AHEAD). Documents the ensemble gradient boosted tree model using 148 indicators from 18 data sources (World Bank, ACLED, UCDP, EMDAT, UN agencies) across 5 categories (economy, violence, governance, environment, social/population). Reports coverage of 26 countries with best accuracy of ~6% margin of error and ~50% of forecasts achieving ≤10% error.

View Harvard reference

Red Social Innovation (2020) 'Foresight, using machine learning to predict refugees displacement', Red Social Innovation. Available at: https://red-social-innovation.com/en/solution/foresight-using-machine-learning-to-predict-refugees-displacement/ (Accessed: 23 March 2026).

Linked Cases (1)

SSD-001 SSD Operational Deployment (Limited Rollout)

AHEAD – Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (Foresight Model)

Social assistance Classical ML